The 2023 Yankees look like a real contender to win their 28th World Series championship in franchise history and their first since ’09. The Yanks might very well have the best starting rotation in baseball, headlined by Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, and the offense is going to remain near the top of the league in most offensive categories thanks to a nine-year, $360 million contract to keep newly dubbed captain Aaron Judge in pinstripes.
The betting market also agrees that the Yankees are one of the top contenders to hoist the Commissioners Trophy this fall, giving them the second-lowest odds to win the 2023 World Series at +750, per DraftKings Sportsbook. New York’s also expected to win the AL East for a second consecutive season, entering the year as the odds-on favorite with +110 odds.
Below, we’ll list the various New York Yankees futures markets bettors can delve into and advise how to approach betting on them.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
2023 New York Yankees regular season win total: Over or under?
OVER 94.5 wins (-105)
UNDER 94.5 wins (-120)
Last season, the Yankees entered the season with a 92-win over/under and surpassed that number by finishing with a 99-63 record. This year, the Yankees’ regular season win total has increased to 94.5 wins, which is a fair number for a team who seemingly got better in the offseason.
Even in an ultra-competitive AL East, the Yankees won 47 of their 76 divisional games, giving them a respectful 62-percent win rate. However, with MLB instituting a balanced schedule, New York will play just 13 games against divisional foes instead of 19. While that might seem like a positive thing given how deep and competitive the AL East is, considering the Yankees’ inner-division success, that might hinder their chances of getting to 95 wins.
New York began last season as arguably the best team in baseball, entering the All-Star break with a 64-28 record, but it played .500 baseball to finish out the regular season. Considering how dominant they were in the first half, it was unlikely the Yankees maintained their .696 winning percentage throughout the whole season.
The Yankees still managed to boast an above-.500 winning percentage in both home (.704) and road games (.519) and had just one month (August) where they failed to play .500 ball (10-18). So, which Yankees team will we see more often in 2023? The one that dominated the first half or managed to get by in the second half?
We’ll side with a mix between the two, with more consistency throughout the season that leads the Bronx Bombers to eclipse their regular season win total of 94.5. Between an offense that ranked fourth in wRC+ (115) and a pitching staff that held hitters to the third-lowest xwOBA (.290), New York has a real shot to cash their regular-season win total OVER for a second consecutive season.
2023 New York Yankees odds to win AL East
Team Odds
New York Yankees +110
Toronto Blue Jays +215
Tampa Bay Rays +380
Boston Red Sox +1700
Baltimore Orioles +2200
A team projected to win close to 95 games should also be projected to win its division, so it’s no surprise to see the Yankees priced as the team to beat in the AL East at +110. While the Blue Jays’ odds to win the AL East (+215) appear to be more enticing, it’s tough to bet against a team that had an above-.500 winning percentage against every divisional foe last season.
The AL East is likely to be a two-team race between the Yankees and Blue Jays, but you can never count out the Rays (+380). The Red Sox (+1700) have too many glaring holes on their roster to compete for an AL East title, and although the Orioles (+2200) put together an 83-79 season, they failed to post a winning record against their AL East opponents, something you can’t have if you’re vying for the division title.
While we think the Yankees are on track for another successful regular season, we profiled the Blue Jays as our favorite bet to win the division in our divisional odds preview. We think the Jays’ odds should be a bit shorter than +215, therefore we see some value on the Jays to take the AL East. As a bettor, it’s tough to find value on the Yankees, as they’re always a public darling, and bettors tend to pay more of a premium to bet on them. There might not be betting value on the Yankees to win the AL East, but considering the betting market gives them a 47.62-percent chance to win the division, it tells you the market still sees them as the most complete team in the AL East.
2023 New York Yankees AL pennant odds
Yankees odds to win the American League: +360 (implied probability: 21.74 percent)
The Yankees sit right behind the Astros with the second-best odds to win the American League at +360. New York hasn’t won the AL pennant in over a decade (13 seasons) but has reached the ALCS three times in the past six seasons.
The Astros have been the Yankees’ kryptonite, ending their hopes of winning the AL pennant the past three times. Houston’s roster is just as, if not even more, as impressive as last season, with the addition of 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu bolstering an already dangerous lineup. While they’ve had their struggles against the Astros in the postseason, it’s only a matter of time until Aaron Boone’s bunch breaks through to the World Series considering they’ve reached the ALCS 50 percent of the time over the past six years.
The betting market correctly priced the Yankees’ AL pennant odds, but they could still be a worthwhile bet at +360 for those higher on the Yankees than the market.
2023 New York Yankees World Series odds
As previously mentioned, the Yankees have the second-best odds to win the 2023 MLB World Series at +750, trailing only the Astros (+600). Granted they’re able to stay healthy, New York’s pitching rotation is going to be tough to score runs against the October, and as long as they’re able to clutch up with runners in scoring position, New York has as good of a chance as ever to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy this fall.
A modest wager on the Yankees to win it all in 2023 isn’t a bad way to dish out a portion of your bankroll, but with the World Series odds market available throughout the season, it’s usually a good idea to wait a bit before making your bet. The odds likely won’t be around 7.5-1 if they again get off to a hot start, but New York could be around 10-1 if they start slowly. Of course, it’s all part of the gamble, but we recommend holding pat for the time being while reevaluating the World Series markets after a month or so.
